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Securitisation Data Report: European Structured Finance - Q3 2016
14 Dec 2016
Market Highlights and Commentary Market Environment Economic conditions According to Eurostat, GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the Euro zone (EU19) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2016. The unemployment rate stood at 10.0% (EU19) and 8.5% (EU28) as of the end of September 2016, the lowest rate recorded since 2011 (EU19) and 2009 (EU28). Term Issuance and Outstanding Volumes In Q3 2016, EUR 40.2 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decline of 46.5% from Q2 2016 (EUR 75.0 billion) and a decline of 30.3% from Q3 2015 (EUR 57.6 billion). Of the EUR 40.2 billion issued, EUR 16.0 billion was placed, representing 39.8% of issuance, compared to EUR 29.3 billion placed in Q2 2016 (representing 39.1%) and EUR 18.6 billion placed in Q3 2015 (representing 32.3%). For the third quarter, UK RMBS continued to lead placed totals (EUR 3.7 billion), followed by European CLO (EUR 3.4 billion) and Dutch RMBS (EUR 2.9 billion). Net issuance was negative for the third quarter of 2016, with EUR 1.24 outstanding at the end of 3Q’16, down from EUR 1.27 trillion at the end of 2Q’16. Of this, approximately EUR 699.8 billion, or 56.2%, was retained. Credit Quality In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q3 2016 among European securitised product, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and prime RMBS, similar to prior quarters. ABCP Trends European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 135.8 billion in Q3 2016, an increase of 13.1% QoQ and 35.8% YoY. Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from Ireland and France. European ABCP outstandings increased modestly from the previous quarter, ending the third quarter at EUR 16.9 billion, up by 10.5% from EUR 15.3 billion in Q2 2016.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan report: European Leveraged Finance - Q3 2016
7 Dec 2016
Highlights Issuance Highlights European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 3Q’16 to €53.3 billion, a 2.3% increase from €52.1 billion in 2Q’16 and an 80.3% increase from €29.6 billion in 3Q’15. The quarterly surge stems from the large increase in leveraged loan issuance, which increased by 45.4% in the third quarter of 2016 while high yield bonds issuance decreased by 25.3%; the high yield bond share of the leveraged finance market decreased to 44.5%, down from 61.0% in 2Q’16 but slightly up from 44.1% in 3Q’15. Market and Economic Environment According to the October 2016 European Central Bank lending survey, in the third quarter of 2016, loan growth continued to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories, while credit standards remained unchanged for enterprises and eased for households. The net easing of banks’ overall terms and conditions on new loans continued for loans to enterprises and households, mainly driven by margins on average loans. Competitive pressures and, to a lesser extent, lower risk perceptions continued to have an easing effect on credit standards on loans to enterprises. Across firm sizes, credit standards were eased marginally for loans to large firms and remained broadly unchanged for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. For the large euro area countries, credit standards on loans to enterprises eased marginally in Germany, while they remained unchanged in France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. Credit standards on housing loans eased and were stronger than the historical average. The main reported factors contributing to an easing in standards were banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet constraints. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2016, euro area banks expect a tightening of credit standards on loans to enterprises and broadly unchanged credit standards on consumer credit and other lending to households. Net demand increased for all types of loans in 3Q’16 and banks forecast a further net increase in the demand for loans in the fourth quarter. The main contributing factors for net demand for loans to enterprises in the third quarter of 2016 were the general level of interest rates and merger and acquisition activities. Net demand for housing loans continued to be driven by the low general level of interest rates, continued favourable housing market prospects and increased consumer confidence.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: European Leveraged Finance - Q2 2016
18 Sep 2016
Highlights Issuance: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 2Q’16 to €52.1 billion, a 22.0% increase from €42.6 billion in 1Q’16 and a 6.5% decrease from €55.7 billion in 2Q’15. The quarterly surge stems from the large increase in high yield bonds issuance, whichincreased by 195.6% in the second quarter of 2016 while leveraged loan issuance decreased by 36.3%; the high yield bond share of the leveraged finance market increased to61%, up from 25.2% in 1Q’16 and up from 54.8% in 2Q’15. Market and Economic Environment: According to the July 2016 European Central Bank lending survey, in the second quarter of 2016, improving loan supply conditions for enterprises and the continued increase in loan demand across all loan categories suggested an ongoingrecovery in loan growth. The net easing on credit standards for loans to enterprises in 2Q’16 was stronger than the historical average calculated over the period since the start of the survey in 2003. Competition remained the main factorbehind the net easing of credit standards on loans to enterprises while risk perceptions and banks’ reduced cost of funds contributed only marginally to such easing. Issuance: Leveraged Loans: Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, decreased in the second quarter of 2016 to €20.3 billion, down 36.3% q‐o‐q (€31.9 billion in 1Q’16) and 19.2% down y‐o‐y (€25.2 billion in 2Q’15). Issuance: High Yield Bonds: Primary high yield issuance in 2Q’16 totalled €31.8 billion on 55 deals, a 195.6% and 4% increase by euro amount, respectively, from 1Q’16 (€10.8 billion on 22 deals) and2Q’15 (€30.5 billion on 58 deals). High yield bond issuance increased in both developed and emerging market Europe in the second quarter of 2016. Returns & Credit Quality:The U.S. HY Distressed Index led returns in the second quarter of 2016 with 21.6% followed by Global Fallen Angel HY Index (6.5%) and U.S. HY (5.9%). Nineteen out of 20 assetclasses examined recorded positive returns while Euro HY CCC and lower rated bonds (‐0.8%) recorded losses in 2Q’16.
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